Download e-book for kindle: Creating Simulation Games on Your Computer by Tim Hartnell

By Tim Hartnell

ISBN-10: 0345328965

ISBN-13: 9780345328960

Booklet by way of Hartnell, Tim

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Sample text

21) is not to be seen. Furthermore it is noteworthy that in a way quite similar to that which leads to the Dempster-Shafer rule, another type of combination rule may be derived which does not have the tendency to be too optimistic, but the tendency to be too pessimistic. In this case the basic probability number m l ( B i l ) ' . . UBil. Since this subset of O can only be ¢ if each Bij = ¢, the necessity of conditioning does not exist if this procedure is applied. 21) but a modification. 21): If frmn one source of information it is concluded that Bil occurs and from the other one it is concluded that Bi2 occurs, one should only conclude, that Bil or Bi2 occur.

6 m(EiUEj) = 0 . 2 The same calculation could be carried out for the estimates b) and d). 18) and with the interpretation of Li as belief functions and Ui as upper probabilities. [] Through this definition the requirements of Shafer's theory of belief functions, concerning the concept of k - P R I s - which in itself is not a topic of Shafer's - are characterized. 2): Be 0 = {El . . , Ek} k j~ILj - Li+~ti~2+;~i3' + "'" +;ti~n-I Be] (TEl) = 1 - U i = where k j I-I E2 = Y, Y~ m(EJl U EJ2) Jl =2 J2 =1 k Ji-1 jl ~" j2;~" and N1 analogously corresponds to the 1-times s u m m a t i o n of m(Ejl U .

0 8 : t P(E2) = U2 = 0 . 3 0 ; P(E3) = La = 0 . 2 0 ; P(E4) = U4 = 0 . 5 2 ~ P(Ex) = - 0 . 0 2 : t P(E2) = L2 = 0 . 1 0 ; P(Ea) = Ua = 0 . 3 0 ; P(E4) = U4 = 0 . 5 2 ~ P(E1) = 0 . 0 8 : si2 T h e s t r u c t u r e S* of this 4 - P R I is therefore t h e set of all w e i g h t e d averages of t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n s sl to [] s12. No s i m p l e r description of S* is possible. 10): Let a 4 - P R I he: L1 =- 0 . 1 2 _< P(E1) _< 0 . 1 7 = Vl L2 = 0 . 1 5 _< P(E2) < 0 . 2 4 = u 2 L3 = 0 . 2 3 < P(E3) < 0 .

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Creating Simulation Games on Your Computer by Tim Hartnell


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